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The 50501 movement has been very active in promoting protests recently. So far, the protests have been small.On Presidents Day, demonstrators across the U.S. descended upon state capitol buildings and other locations to protest actions by President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk, who are implementing significant changes to the federal government.In Washington, D.C., the nation’s capital, thousands of people gathered at the Capitol Reflecting Pool chanting “Where is Congress?” and urging members of Congress to “do your job!” despite nearly 40-degree temperatures and 20-mile-per-hour wind gusts.The D.C. chapter of the 50501 Movement organized the rallies. One of its leaders, known as Potus Black, urged the crowd of protesters to stand united in order to “uphold the Constitution”.”To oppose tyranny is to stand behind democracy and remind our elected officials that we, the people, are who they’re elected to serve, not themselves,” Black said. “The events over the past month have been built to exhaust us, to break our wills. But we are the American people. We will not break.”The nationwide protests were part of the 50501 Movement, which stands for “50 protests. 50 states. 1 movement.” These protests were a response to what organizers describe as “the anti-democratic and illegal actions of the Trump administration.” Monday’s demonstrations marked the group’s second nationwide campaign, following a series of executive orders signed by Trump. Both Musk and Trump have faced criticism for mass firings across several federal agencies.The movement knows that they are too small as currently populated to expect their demands to be met or even to change the conversation to their issues. Their hope is that the 50501 movement gains momentum as more protests are called and that this will cause change.Does this movement have a shot at reaching their goals? What separates an effective protest from one that gets forgotten? I will explore protest movements and examine their strengths and limitations. If you’ve never been to a protest like I have, it is a sharp learning curve! Lastly, I’ll give you some preparations and items to think about if you are joining the 50501 movement or any other protest.Let’s continue below the fold.The Times They are a Changin’: Protests That SucceedThe Civil Rights Movement has been mythologized and idealized as a protest. It took decades of careful planning to reach MLK, Jr. giving his iconic speech seen here.Mass protests can succeed with meticulous planning and a bit of luck. The classic example is the “March on Washington” by many different Black groups. That was a culmination of decades of activism and careful planning to get to that point. Nor was it the end as the Civil Rights Movement continued after the speech.Protest movements generally have a better chance of succeeding if they follow these guidelines:The protest movement eschews violence. Nonviolent protests have about double the chance of succeeding as violent ones (but the gap is narrowing). Many potential activists and allies shy away when the protest movement condones violence to achieve their goals. Gandhi’s nonviolent protests are an excellent example.It is used as a tool for recruitment and and further organization. Gaining more allies — especially those from marginalized groups — only makes the protests more potent and likely to be effective. The Women’s March in 2017 may not have met their demands but recruitment of women to run for office followed. This helped build the 2018 blue-wave election.Movements that can generate positive media attention or can show visible repression have a better chance of success than those that generate negative headlines. This is part of why the Civil Rights Movement succeeded.If there is strong leadership and cohesive demands, the movement has an endgame. Whether that is pressuring legislators to pass bills, running for office, or convincing others (especially elected officials) to join them, the specific planning matters. The March for Life (the anti-abortion lobby) was particularly adept at planning and secured their victory with the Dobbs decision.All it takes is one spark to cause a mass protest to occur. Before he did it, did Mohamed Bouazizi expect to launch the Arab Spring protests by immolating himself? I highly doubt it. Yes, the Arab Spring was a false dawn but the point is that this spark was the catalyst for huge action and gave them a chance for change. YouTube Video Failure is an Option: Where Mass Protests Miss the MarkOccupy Wall Street is an example of a recent protest movement that petered out. Most protest movements world wide get quashed and are ineffective in achieving their goals.Why protests fail is up for debate but looking at recent protest movements — especially in the USA — paints a bleak picture.Time magazine named ‘The Protester’ its 2011 Person of the Year amid Occupy Wall Street, the Arab Spring, and anti-austerity protests in Europe. This was before the Gezi Park demonstrations in Turkey, Hong Kong’s Umbrella movement, the Women’s March in Washington, DC, the Yellow Vests movement in France, Indian farmers’ protests, and Black Lives Matter, to name just a few historic uprisings since then. Globally, protests more than tripled between 2006 and 2020. Gauging by current turmoil surrounding the war in Gaza, our ‘age of mass protests’, as it’s been called, is not about to end any time soon.But to truly change history, it is not enough for the masses to rise up; they must subsequently win concessions such as ceasefires, fair elections, environmental protections, or new policies that promote racial justice. While protests continue erupting with remarkable frequency, they are also failing, at historic rates, to achieve protesters’ stated goals. As Time hailed the power of the protester, the rate at which mass protests succeeded in meeting their objectives was plummeting, from two in three during the early 2000s to just one in six by the early 2020s.Activists are now reaping less fruit from their labor, while many would-be activists never take the plunge in the first place because they reasonably doubt that their participation will make any difference. Why aren’t protesters winning like they once did?Problem #1: Protesting is too risky for the majority of the population.The populace is too busy living paycheck to paycheck and are too apathetic to protest in numbers that are meaningful. Most people cannot afford to be fired for being seen and doxxed at a protest. Many protest movements are ineffectual for this reason.You’re asking people not only to take time out of their lives but to risk being assaulted and arrested. That’s a bridge too far for most people and it’s another reason many protests never reach critical mass.Problem #2: Even the most peaceful protest can turn violent.Studies have found that far-right protests do not lose support for turning violent but every other group sees potential allies abandon them if they resort to violence.Provocateurs and counter-protests will look for any chance to escalate a protest into violence to discredit the movement. The WTO protests in Seattle were discredited because of the wanton destruction of property by bad-faith actors.A violent protest is EXACTLY what President Musk and the White House figurehead want right now to declare martial law. “When the looting starts, the shooting starts”.Problem #3: Authoritarian governments have become increasingly adept at handling and discouraging protests.Dictators use “smart repression” techniques such as censorship, propaganda, and misinformation to discourage or discredit protests. Authoritarian governments hold an immense advantage because they are willing to do whatever it takes to quash protests while protestors aren’t always willing to risk it all.The powers that be have learned from counterrevolutionary movements and history and know exactly what to do in order to win. Protest movements rely on emotions while the opposition to them relies on calculation. Problem #4: Social media has democratized protests and eschewed leadership and organizing.Instead of being strategic and having an end game, most progressive movements rely on big numbers and emotion to sustain protest movements. Once the emotion passes, the big numbers go away.Effective movements take decades to organize and plan. With social media, protests can be democratized with one hashtag or slogan such as #BLM, #MeToo, and “We are the 99%”.Spontaneous protests often are leaderless and unorganized and fizzle out without any change occurring. Occupy Wall Street and Black Lives Matter were especially susceptible to this.Problem #5: Protests have been hijacked by “elite capture” or as I like to call them “cosplay socialists”.Increasingly in the USA, white college-educated liberals are hijacking issues and protests and robbing them of authenticity. It was noticed when Occupy Wall Street included no Black protestors and few from the actual working class.Many white #BLM protestors were fair weather allies. Too many people only joined the movement when it was popular after the death of George Floyd and abandoned Black people the instant it became unpopular with their racist white relatives.Most of these types of protestors have never faced serious repression or the lack of privilege in their lives. It is easy to deride protests originating from places of privilege when they cannot possibly understand the experiences of the people they claim to be representing.Problem #6: Protest messaging and PR is too easily co-opted by bad-faith actors.The most atrocious slogan in politics in my lifetime has been “Defund the Police”. As soon as the #BLM protests became associated with that slogan a lot of credibility went out the window.The Occupy Wall Street movement became more about fighting about whether to occupy a park than the actual message it purported to be fighting for.Again, these movements were victims of being leaderless. Leaders tightly control the message. Leaderless groups have little control over the rank and file and invite the grifters to co-opt the messaging.All it takes is one faux-pas and the far-right propaganda machine will pounce to discredit the movement.Problem #7: Some protests use ineffectual tactics that alienate the very people they are trying to reach.People get annoyed by blocked streets when all they want to do is get home.Others get upset when cultural heritage sites are defaced by idiotic climate protestors.Again, the vandalism of property is a huge problem. YouTube Video Preparation is Essential for a Successful ProtestWe have a problem if the security state is turned against us. If you aren’t prepared — especially if a protest escalates — you will have the Musk/Trump regime breathing down your neck.If you are going to protest during the Musk/Trump regime then you need to be ready for any possible outcome. It is better to be paranoid and prepare for the worst than be underprepared and caught in a bad situation. KNOW YOUR RIGHTS. The ACLU has this handy site that explains what rights protestors and bystanders have for each scenario. Memorize them and assert them very clearly. If arrested, invoke your right to remain silent and the right to have an attorney present.Secure your personal information as much as possible before going. Don’t allow yourself to get doxxed or compromised. Loose lips sink ships.Make sure you use apps and programs that are encrypted or require strong passwords. It will be more difficult for law enforcement to break into your electronics that way.Make sure to have a safety plan in place. Protest with a buddy. Bring items to deal with tear gas and other issues just in case.DO NOT ESCALATE A PROTEST. If someone is trying to escalate, they are likely either a counter-protestor or a fed. Seek out your buddy or the nearest protest leader for guidance.There are probably more tips I haven’t uncovered. Feel free to chime in with more in the comments! YouTube Video ConclusionI personally don’t see much value in taking to the streets in the USA. There are significant risks and not much in the way of rewards. Read this excellent discussion comment thread in the APR for the crux of my arguments from people who have been there, done that and have been activists longer than I’ve been alive.There’s this wild expectation that if enough people join a protest movement that it will topple the government and usher in some sort of progressive utopia. THIS IS FANTASY. Real life doesn’t work the same way as it does in the movies. Protests have their uses still but toppling a government in the Western world isn’t one of them. Bevins’ summary (258) is pithy:1: Protests and crackdowns lead to favorable media (social and traditional) coverage 2: Media coverage leads more people to protest 3: Repeat, until almost everyone is protesting 4: ??? 5: A better societyThe idea was simply that these tactics will create disruption and more importantly create spectacle, the spectacle would create more protest and more disruption, and then the implacable structural forces of history would take over—no need for any Leninist vanguard party—and move society forward.That brings us the to 50501 protest movement. Will it work? It has a chance but the odds are against it.They are nonviolent, so that is an excellent start. The media coverage I have seen generally has been neutral to slightly positive. However, other than “anti-Trump”, I don’t see a clear message or set of goals. I also am unsure what their end game is. Are they looking to build alliances? Are they planning on running for office? I am unsure by looking at their website and that is a problem.I don’t have any prescriptions or advice other than to say mass street protest activism is in a rut. The returns and odds of success are diminishing with each failed movement. Activists have to be willing to learn from the past and become more calculated or otherwise risk these types of actions being seen as not part of the solution.
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