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Lee Kwang-hyung The author is president of KAIST and cochair of the Presidential Council on Intellectual Property. Chaos theory suggests that underlying patterns can be found even in disorder, allowing for better management of complex systems. These patterns, known as attractors, help us navigate unpredictability. Donald Trump’s return to the political stage has thrown the world into uncertainty. His stance on tariffs and pressure on China was expected, but his imposition of tariffs on allies and disruption of Ukraine-bound military supplies were shocking. His disregard for British and French mediation efforts adds to the chaos. Flags of the United States and China form the background for a dragon and eagle. [SHUTTERSTOCK] Can chaos theory help us predict Trump’s behavior? If we identify the attractors guiding his decisions, we may be able to anticipate and respond to his actions effectively. Two key drivers of Trump’s actions Trump’s behavior revolves around two main attractors: short-term economic gains and containing China. His transactional approach prioritizes immediate profit over long-term alliances, treating international relations as business deals. His second key focus is containing China. He has aggressively increased tariffs, effectively raising duties to 35—50 percent. His approach aligns with historical geopolitical strategies, as outlined in “The Grand Chessboard” by former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, which explains how great powers neutralize rising competitors. After World War II, the world was divided into ideological blocs. The United States sought to weaken the Soviet Union by separating it from China. This effort led to Henry Kissinger’s visit to China in 1971 and President Richard Nixon’s subsequent visit, formalizing U.S.-China relations. In exchange, the United States agreed to withdraw from Vietnam, leading to its eventual communist unification in 1975. Related ArticleKorea’s age restriction on beef is just one of many nontariff barriers Trump might hit back onTrump threatens 200% tariff on European wine and spirits in escalating trade warTrump pressures Russia by letting energy financing license expireFirst Trump tariffs hit Korea, targeting steel and aluminum By the 1980s, communism was weakening. In 1989, Eastern European nations demanded reforms, and German reunification became a reality despite opposition from many European leaders. U.S. President George H.W. Bush supported Germany’s unification to counterbalance the Soviet Union, prioritizing long-term strategy over European concerns. Similarly, viewing Ukraine through the lens of a chessboard clarifies the United States’ primary goal: containing China at any cost. Trump’s priority: Isolating China The United States is troubled by the growing Russia-China alliance. It would be a significant strategic victory if Washington could drive a wedge between them. Ending the Ukraine war quickly could serve this goal by fostering better U.S.-Russia relations while securing economic interests, such as Ukraine’s mineral resources and the potential reopening of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Some reports suggest U.S. involvement in reviving the pipeline. In this game, traditional allies like Britain and France are secondary concerns. Russia is struggling economically. Moscow may distance itself from Beijing if the United States offers tangible benefits. Meanwhile, China has little to offer Russia beyond ideological solidarity. In diplomacy, pragmatism often outweighs ideology. Applying chaos theory to Trump reveals that his erratic actions are driven by short-term economic gain and containing China. Of these, containing China appears to be the stronger force, influencing how he treats various countries. Why Korea and Taiwan are treated differently Trump has imposed tariffs on many countries, including allies like Canada and Mexico. However, Indo-Pacific nations — India, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and Australia — have faced relatively mild treatment. These countries form a strategic perimeter around China. Despite its close ties to China, Russia is also exempt from broad tariffs. Trump’s view of the world seems to divide nations into two categories: those useful for containing China and those irrelevant to that goal. If Canada bordered China, it might have been spared punitive tariffs. Trump frequently complains about Korea and Taiwan dominating the semiconductor market but has not imposed sweeping tariffs. Instead, he pressures them to manufacture in the United States — an unusual diplomatic concession. Korea also holds strategic leverage in shipbuilding, nuclear energy and battery production, making it a key player in both geopolitics and technology policy. From a geopolitical standpoint, Korea’s position is critical. Approximately 25,000 U.S. troops are stationed within 1,000 kilometers of Beijing, along with a Thaad missile defense system. For China, Korea is a strategic headache. In discussions over defense cost-sharing, Seoul must emphasize that its value extends beyond North Korea deterrence — it is an indispensable asset to the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. [REUTERS/YONHAP] A strategic approach for Korea Korea’s best strategy is to align with U.S. efforts to contain China. Korean public sentiment is already largely pro-American and wary of China, making this alignment politically feasible. However, national sentiment can shift, and if the U.S. applies excessive pressure, Korea’s stance could change — something China is well aware of. Recent developments suggest that Beijing is adjusting its approach to Korea. On Nov. 8, China introduced a visa-free policy for Koreans, just three days after Trump’s U.S. election victory. Additionally, Bong Joon-ho’s Hollywood film “Mickey 17” premiered in China on March 7, marking the first Korean film released there in eight years. These moves are likely calculated, and Washington is undoubtedly paying attention. While Korea may face selective tariffs, the impact will be far less severe than for nations facing blanket trade barriers. The United States accounts for 18.3 percent of Korea’s exports (as of 2023), but alternative markets remain open. The world extends beyond the United States, and many countries are experiencing harsher trade disruptions. By leveraging its geopolitical and technological advantages, Korea can turn the chaos of Trump’s policies into an opportunity. Applying chaos theory reveals that what seems like disorder may actually be a moment of strategic potential. Translated using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
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